The best-selling phone in America is the iPhone, according to two different reports. But the same research shows Android is the top-selling OS, and it continues unimpeded in its march to worldwide domination.
Meanwhile, BlackBerry's Research In Motion is getting stepped on, and dumb phones — those not blessed with any of the so-called "smart phone" OSes — may well be headed for extinction. The question is, will Android keep it together at the top, or spread itself too thin?
Selling the top phone — not just smart phone but phonephone — should be good news for Apple. But compared to the quarter that ended a year ago, Apple's market share declined by 21 percent against Android. RIM's share drop is a lot worse, though: It's down 53 percent compared to a year ago.
"Much of Android's quarterly share growth came at the expense of RIM, rather than Apple," said Ross Rubin, executive director of industry analysis for NPD, in a press release. "The HTC EVO 4G, Motorola Droid X and other new high-end Android devices have been gaining momentum at carriers that traditionally have been strong RIM distributors, and the recent introduction of the BlackBerry Torch has done little to stem the tide."
With nobody excited about new BlackBerry products, the best thing RIM can do is lower prices on its older more venerated handsets. Its Curve series, the No. 2 selling phone in the U.S., is listed at several carriers for the low low price of ... free. At least, with a two-year contract.
The iPhone beat another free-ish phone, the LG Cosmos, a messaging phone. As the only non-"smart" phone in NPD's top 5, and one that only got there through heavy-duty subsidies, another message is clear: Dumb phones are dying. But that might just mean more Android-powered phones of modest IQ being handed out for free or next to nothing.
See, the strategy that is helping Android succeed worldwide (and is helping RIM hang on for dear life) is price slashing. And how do you slash prices? In Android's case, you release lower-powered phones.
"With Samsung, HTC, Motorola and Sony Ericsson all delivering large numbers of Android devices, and with focused efforts from many other vendors, such as LG, Huawei and Acer, yielding promising volumes, [Android] continues to gather momentum in markets around the world," said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys, in a press release announcing the iPhone and Android successes.
But the low-end theory is in effect: "Vendors are now delivering Android devices across a broad range of price points," continues Cunningham, "from high-end products such as the Samsung Galaxy S or HTC Desire, to aggressively priced devices such as the LG GT540 Optimus or the Huawei-built Vodafone 845, ensuring that Android devices are available and affordable to consumers on almost any budget."
All you have to do is peek at the Androids of autumn, as we listed them, to see a common theme: Lots of Android phones with cheaper processors, starting at less than $100.
The question is, will Android spread itself too thin? The Android camp sings the diversity song, with phones (and tablets) of every shape and size, with varied processor speeds and RAM, too. Android itself comes with no licensing fee, though Google does regulate Android a bit by granting desirable apps and access to the Android Market app store only to those companies that use the OS to Google's liking. Even with those constraints, Android looks wide open compared to its competitors.
Apple — and now, with Windows Phone 7, Microsoft — woo developers with closed platforms: Everything is tightly regulated, from hardware specs to app-store distribution, giving developers fewer worries, if also fewer options. RIM never played the apps game to win, but of course its success is also rooted in a secure, you might say "locked down" pairing of proprietary software and hardware. (Msnbc.com is a joint venture of Microsoft and NBC Universal.)
One common analogy makes its way around phone-nerd circles, that Android is the new Windows while iPhone is the new Mac. It's not perfect, but Windows did overcome the Mac because it was available on a plethora of hardware — some for really cheap — built and sold by companies trying to make their own money. Through all that, the brand stayed intact, too, and even maintained a certain degree of dignity.
However flawed, the Windows analogy is, for Google's sake, hopefully more accurate than a grimmer comparison: That Android is the new Windows Mobile. It was the biggest smart phone platform before smart phone platforms were cool. But it was so widely available, with so little control, that people who chose it generally got stiffed, with underpowered hardware, unregulated overpriced apps and an increasing need by third-parties to build unique (that is, inconsistent) experiences on top of it.
Windows Phone was a huge business for Microsoft, but even conservative Microsoft saw fit to put it out of its misery, to make way for the much savvier Windows Phone 7. Wait, what if Windows Phone 7 is the new Mac? OK, I'm gonna stop with the analogies. For now.
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